Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well...
And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By forex news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then forex chart starts a new rally.
It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, - down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a "down" direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).
The forex day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later.
Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.
Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: "in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side". But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?
Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy... But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of forex rates being tied up to countries' economy statistics.
I wonder if I'll ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes.
The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?
Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into one's head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way.
Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic forex pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. You'll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
anticipation of important economic and political news
With this scenario holding true - and it really does - we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance".
Thomas Demark was more laconic in "Technical analysis - an emerging science":
"Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there's a price rally and if visa versa, there's a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles".
Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for forex market is readily apparent.
In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at forex market by way of scrutinizing the country's economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country's economy condition as below:
State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators - the faster the economic and the currency price growth);
Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country's securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the country's 30 leading companies.
The country's interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country's economy and hence into national currency strength.
Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.
Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.
The country's gold and currency reserve assets.
Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.
Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.)
Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.)
Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)
To be considered additionally are the country's political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.
Conclusions:
Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.
Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.
In anticipation of important economic and political news forex pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates ("rumored trade"), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of forex pairs in accordance with the scheme below;
forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING forex?
Thomas Demark was more laconic in "Technical analysis - an emerging science":
"Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there's a price rally and if visa versa, there's a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles".
Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for forex market is readily apparent.
In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at forex market by way of scrutinizing the country's economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country's economy condition as below:
State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators - the faster the economic and the currency price growth);
Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country's securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the country's 30 leading companies.
The country's interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country's economy and hence into national currency strength.
Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.
Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.
The country's gold and currency reserve assets.
Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.
Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.)
Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.)
Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)
To be considered additionally are the country's political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.
Conclusions:
Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.
Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.
In anticipation of important economic and political news forex pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates ("rumored trade"), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of forex pairs in accordance with the scheme below;
forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING forex?
Forex Secrets
The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday forex currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the state's economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual forex news is superior to the estimated one, the forex quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.
This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of forex trader is gambling on forex exchange rates differential (forex pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:
forex pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to forex rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the forex rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) forex market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.
So, what are these factors?
forex student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:
forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the forex rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams ("Trading Chaos 2" Chapter 1 "The market is what you are thinking of it"):
Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something... among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer'/sellers' power absolute equilibrium point.
The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, forex and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.
This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of forex trader is gambling on forex exchange rates differential (forex pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:
forex pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to forex rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the forex rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) forex market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.
So, what are these factors?
forex student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:
forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the forex rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams ("Trading Chaos 2" Chapter 1 "The market is what you are thinking of it"):
Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something... among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer'/sellers' power absolute equilibrium point.
The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, forex and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.
analysis technique
How to Overcome Traders Mistakes and Begin to Make Some Profits in forex
The facts are, there are just 5% of forex traders which successes with their trading. To become as they are, we should insert step 2.5 in scenario above. This step will simplify above scenarios by eliminating the fourth and eighth and changing ninth step became TRADERS GOAL ACHIEVED.
2.5 Preparing yourself with a solid basic knowledge of forex trading
- Know about the fundamental of forex trading
- Learn about what and how forex market really is
- Train yourself to getting familiar with the technical analysis in forex trading
- Learn how psychological factor affecting in the trading and define our best trading personality
- Be aware in our risk and money management
- Develop your most effective unique trading system based on your knowledge.
We should keep in mind deeply that forex trading is an investment. There is no way that we could be a master in some investment that we've just dive in to for days or weeks. We have to do it by the right way, and don't forget to eliminate your rush in the goal achievement. You will surely find your best trading system that suits you, I guarantee that. But it would cost you some time for several trial and error system testing while you developing your experience in forex trading.
By using an analogical approach as a computer, forex broker is the application programs and operating system. We do need them to make sure that all we need its done, served and executed properly. But, how good the computerization execution speed and its performance are depends on the basic computer specification, which analogically as you.
How to Get Yourself Completely forex Prepared
Learning and education materials are world widely spreading around us.
1. The first and the most value added a resource of forex trading is through book reading. forex and investing categorized books are availabe in countless numbers in many bookstore and online bookstore. You should pick some of them to educate yourself with valuable knowledge of the theory beyond forex trading.
2. Try to get into some traders forum to know more about forex trading and the markets. forex forum also a place to give you an information for forecasting the crowd psychological factor to forecast the currency price movement by examining on how do other traders react in some financial forex related world events.
3. Get a forex course. An expert forex traders or forex broker are offering this kind of forex educational method. The course are usually about the basic knowledge of forex, technical analysis technique usage and its tools, an expert trading advice or maybe in how to develop a particular tested forex trading system which profitable (if done right and backed by your forex basic knowledge).
4. forex magazine subscription. Some forex magazines are published weekly, monthly and others might be yearly. These materials usually give you information about the updated forex market behavior overview and analysis which can be use for the input of the fundamental analysis of your forex trading.
The facts are, there are just 5% of forex traders which successes with their trading. To become as they are, we should insert step 2.5 in scenario above. This step will simplify above scenarios by eliminating the fourth and eighth and changing ninth step became TRADERS GOAL ACHIEVED.
2.5 Preparing yourself with a solid basic knowledge of forex trading
- Know about the fundamental of forex trading
- Learn about what and how forex market really is
- Train yourself to getting familiar with the technical analysis in forex trading
- Learn how psychological factor affecting in the trading and define our best trading personality
- Be aware in our risk and money management
- Develop your most effective unique trading system based on your knowledge.
We should keep in mind deeply that forex trading is an investment. There is no way that we could be a master in some investment that we've just dive in to for days or weeks. We have to do it by the right way, and don't forget to eliminate your rush in the goal achievement. You will surely find your best trading system that suits you, I guarantee that. But it would cost you some time for several trial and error system testing while you developing your experience in forex trading.
By using an analogical approach as a computer, forex broker is the application programs and operating system. We do need them to make sure that all we need its done, served and executed properly. But, how good the computerization execution speed and its performance are depends on the basic computer specification, which analogically as you.
How to Get Yourself Completely forex Prepared
Learning and education materials are world widely spreading around us.
1. The first and the most value added a resource of forex trading is through book reading. forex and investing categorized books are availabe in countless numbers in many bookstore and online bookstore. You should pick some of them to educate yourself with valuable knowledge of the theory beyond forex trading.
2. Try to get into some traders forum to know more about forex trading and the markets. forex forum also a place to give you an information for forecasting the crowd psychological factor to forecast the currency price movement by examining on how do other traders react in some financial forex related world events.
3. Get a forex course. An expert forex traders or forex broker are offering this kind of forex educational method. The course are usually about the basic knowledge of forex, technical analysis technique usage and its tools, an expert trading advice or maybe in how to develop a particular tested forex trading system which profitable (if done right and backed by your forex basic knowledge).
4. forex magazine subscription. Some forex magazines are published weekly, monthly and others might be yearly. These materials usually give you information about the updated forex market behavior overview and analysis which can be use for the input of the fundamental analysis of your forex trading.
Start Trading in Forex
It's a fact that forex trading became a highly preferable investment method in the last decade. Combined with the internet as a global 24/7 network forex is reachable to everyone. I'll not give you about the basic explanation of forex trading in this article. I'm sure that i don't have to tell what forex trading is. People which familiar or have an interest in an investment know forex already. Don't they?
forex trading is basically just an investment
As any other investment, there are always benefits and risks beyond forex trading. Many people/organization, especially forex brokers, its affiliate and those who earn their income by providing some forex related services says that forex trading have so much advantages compared to other investments; forex is easy, with its non-stop 24 hours market, its wide range adjustable leverage, its automated trading platform, its offered better opportunity for income resource, and many more -- you name it as much as you want to...
Blinded by its 'beautiful dream imagination', many small/personal traders, especially for the new ones forgot that forex trading is basically still an investment program. Traders should never have a thought that forex trading is an income resource.
Common Beginner Traders Scenario
Beginner forex traders are usually follow the trend of forex trading without preparing and providing them self with an adequate understanding about what's inside forex trading. Their common scenarios are:
1. Know about forex trading
2. Have an interest in forex trading
3. Looking for an easy and profitable forex services
(Usually by looking for some services with less margin, high leverage, automated trading platform, and less risk? - which is too good to be true)
4. Start gambling with their trades
5. Unable to achieve profits as what their imagination
6. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5
7. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5 again... and again...
8. Realizing that they are loosing too much or that their imagination along these days/weeks/months is wrong (i doubt that it would reach years)
9. Give up and quit their trading for good.
Where did they do wrong in above scenario? Is that wrong to always searching for a better service to back up our trade? In my point of view, there are no mistakes in that scenario at all. But it's just incomplete, and that's the most dangerous mistakes made by most beginner traders.
forex trading is basically just an investment
As any other investment, there are always benefits and risks beyond forex trading. Many people/organization, especially forex brokers, its affiliate and those who earn their income by providing some forex related services says that forex trading have so much advantages compared to other investments; forex is easy, with its non-stop 24 hours market, its wide range adjustable leverage, its automated trading platform, its offered better opportunity for income resource, and many more -- you name it as much as you want to...
Blinded by its 'beautiful dream imagination', many small/personal traders, especially for the new ones forgot that forex trading is basically still an investment program. Traders should never have a thought that forex trading is an income resource.
Common Beginner Traders Scenario
Beginner forex traders are usually follow the trend of forex trading without preparing and providing them self with an adequate understanding about what's inside forex trading. Their common scenarios are:
1. Know about forex trading
2. Have an interest in forex trading
3. Looking for an easy and profitable forex services
(Usually by looking for some services with less margin, high leverage, automated trading platform, and less risk? - which is too good to be true)
4. Start gambling with their trades
5. Unable to achieve profits as what their imagination
6. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5
7. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5 again... and again...
8. Realizing that they are loosing too much or that their imagination along these days/weeks/months is wrong (i doubt that it would reach years)
9. Give up and quit their trading for good.
Where did they do wrong in above scenario? Is that wrong to always searching for a better service to back up our trade? In my point of view, there are no mistakes in that scenario at all. But it's just incomplete, and that's the most dangerous mistakes made by most beginner traders.
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